Historian Stephen Kotkin: On China’s sphere of influence and rise in a U.S. dominated world (3/3)
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Published 2024-08-06
His lecture to the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna, Austria touched on a wide range of topics, including Russia (for which he is best known, as a Stalin biographer). In this video, I’ve edited and clipped out the parts of Kotkin’s presentation addressing China.
Topics include the historical context and implications of China’s growing sphere of influence and rise in a U.S. dominated world, the risks of miscalculation and "sleepwalking into war," Xi Jinping and the narrowness of decision-making on an opaque authoritarian regime, the biggest threat to the American-led rules-based international system, Donald Trump, and more.
Although this presentation was given in April, 2017, Professor Kotkin’s insights are still as relevant today as they were back then.
All Comments (15)
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What do you think of Professor Kotkin's analysis? Do you agree or disagree? (Please be specific)
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The fact that Kotkin is talking about the inevitability of Chinese aggression, and then finding out that this clip is from 2017 back before this became obvious, just shows how much he understands the problem and completely nailed the diagnosis.
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He is symbol of clarity in the historical narrative.
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Every American expert I've seen, no matter how knowledgeable, just can't help but to be self-congratulatory. This attitude is a huge blindspot for the yanks.
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The merchant marine figure is off, since the 200,000 vessels are/were fishing vessels, though the current number is more like half a million from what I can see, and China has sometimes used fishing vessels in very aggressive manner. The CIA World Factbook has China's 2023 merchant marine -- transports -- at over 8,000 vessels, more than double the US' merchant fleet. Still, Stephen Kotkin is as interesting and relevant now as he was in 2017 when this presentation was recorded, which is to say very interesting and thought provoking. The lecture has aged well and makes me think :)
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In my view whole world is paying the tax for the US military, its not just the US citizen.
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China has resolved all its land disputes with its land neighbors except India which has repeatedly rebuffed Chinese efforts to settle disputes.
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Very good lectures. And the video editing is good too. Thx for the upload!
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In 2017, Kotkin discussed US exceptionalism: "China cannot substitute for or displace the US." In 2024, US exceptionalism has waned morally, economically, militarily, and culturally. Continuous military and economic wars have left gaping wounds as the US seeks global hegemony.
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Excellent as always
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Sounds like this is a Trump era lecture.
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With due respect, is Mr Kotkin on drugs? What is he talking about HongKong and Taiwan about?
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This might be 10 years old lecture?
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Probably wrong like all your experts colleagues
