4 Signs You Should AVOID a Roth Conversion (Save on Taxes!)

Published 2024-05-04
The thought of taxes can be a bit daunting, especially when it comes to planning for your golden years. That’s why today, I’m going to walk you through some scenarios where Roth conversions might not be your best bet.

Roth conversions can be a savvy move in retirement planning when it comes to strategically managing your tax liabilities. By converting traditional IRA funds into a Roth IRA, you pay taxes now at potentially lower rates, shielding your future withdrawals from Uncle Sam’s grasp.
For instance, if you anticipate being in a higher tax bracket down the road, doing a conversion today could save you a bundle in the long haul. It’s like playing chess with your finances, making moves today to set yourself up for a win tomorrow.

Scenario 1: Future Tax Brackets Take a Dive:
The most straightforward reason not to convert is if you foresee your tax rate dropping in the future. In that case, it’s wise to hold off on those Roth conversions. After all, why fork out more in taxes now when you could pay less later? Play the waiting game and time your moves for maximum benefit.

Scenario 2: Downsize, Declutter, and Decrease Taxes:
When retirement is in full swing your spending habits will evolve. Maybe your mortgage is a thing of the past, and the grand adventures are winding down. With fewer expenses on the horizon, your taxable income could take a nosedive, landing you in a lower tax bracket. Before pulling the trigger on Roth conversions, understand your evolving lifestyle and spending habits.

Scenario 3: Charitable Hearts and Tax-Savvy Minds:
If you’re a generous person with a penchant for charitable giving, this could also influence your Roth conversion strategy. Enter qualified charitable distributions (QCDs), a tool that lets you donate directly from your IRA to charity—tax-free. By leveraging QCDs, you not only support the causes but also chip away at your required minimum distributions (RMDs). It’s a win-win that could spare you from unwanted tax burdens while making a difference in your community.

Scenario 4: Short and Sweet Life Expectancies:
None of us have a crystal ball when it comes to life expectancy. But if you find yourself on the shorter end of the spectrum, it might be time to rethink those Roth conversions. It doesn’t make sense to pay taxes on withdrawals you might never make.


There’s no one-size-fits-all approach to retirement planning. Each individual’s financial landscape is unique, shaped by personal goals, circumstances, and dreams for the future. Before making any hasty decisions, take a step back and assess your own situation. Consider consulting with a financial advisor to weigh the pros and cons of Roth conversions in light of your specific needs and aspirations.

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⏱Timestamps:⏱
0:00 - When Roth conversions make sense
1:04 - Lower future tax rate
3:18 - RMD projection
6:09 - Charitable giving
8:33 - Life expectancy
10:44 - The question to ask

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All Comments (21)
  • Excellent substance. I appreciate the way you explain things with brevity. 🙏
  • @ChristinemSA
    Another excellent video. Lots of good points to incorporate into our planning.
  • @njlifeandhealth
    Man thanks for the advice! Our clients are always asking these questions it’s good to know
  • @ericr2zz
    One additional issue that was not mention re: #4 "If you don't have a long life expectancy". At your death and your spouse inherits your IRA, he/she will be forced to take RMD's, but his/her tax bracket just changed from Married Filing Jointly to "Qualifing Surviving Spouse", to Single. The RMD's on a Single could cause him/her to be in a much higher tax bracket. Plus, the standard deduction for Single Taxpayers is much lower. Therefore, making Roth conversions if you don't have a long life expectancy makes sense.
  • @M22Research
    Excellent discussion - particularly #4. Our father converted 100% their IRAs to Roth and while I do not know his before and after tax rates, that move simplified life for our surviving mother. She is far less financially sophisticated than he was. And of course, he simplified life for his three kids, who already have their own tax complexities due to being in or near retirement.
  • @steveb855
    Other factors: spouse dies and now you are tax filing as single instead of married filing jointly tax brackets. Also pair up large ira withdrawals with large medical deductions such as long term care costs.
  • @mkmac9539
    Thanks for the confirmation, James.
  • @Paul-GrnHil
    This is great advice but I would like to point out that the RMD table is designed to liquidate the majority of your IRA assets over your lifetime. The fact that the percentage distribution increases as you age it assumes that the account balance has been reduced by previous distributions. Your 4% at age 75 vs 8.2% at age 90 example is misleading as it will likely be on a smaller balance.
  • @Jack63141
    Watch you all of the time. Finally just subscribed so I am not a scofflaw anymore. Good video. I think reason 2 outweighs reason 1. If you stay invested in equities in retirement for the long haul, then it can be really easy to get into RMD trouble over time -- even if you don't need that much money to live on.
  • @markb8515
    Thanks James for another very informative video!
  • @janethunt4037
    James, you are THE BEST!!! (even though my husband was confused by this; I know exactly what we need to do.)
  • @DougASAP
    I answered no to all 4 questions and am very happy that I have made substantial progress making strategic Roth conversions over the last 9 years! Thanks for your great videos!
  • If you take into account the growth of a stock market portfolio, the tax aspect may change a bit. I expect my tax rate to drop significantly when I retire, but I would still be paying tax from pulling money out of my taxable stock brokerage accounts. The question then becomes one of what is the breakeven. I calculated that the breakeven in my case would be if the account grows more than 46%. If it grows more than 46%, then it is better to do the Roth conversion before it starts to grow. The probably of it growing over 46% in the stock market over a 20 year period is very high. I did Roth conversions over the last 2 years, and I am close to breakeven even after the recent drop in the stock market. Before the recent market drop, my account growth was 60% over the last 1.5 years. In this case, it has almost broken even, so was a good idea to convert. The key to this to pay the tax out of taxable accounts. If you don't, the breakeven percentage is significantly higher (e.g. 150% growth versus 46% growth). It is my sense that one has to consider expected portfolio growth as part of the determination.
  • @jcinkc3
    This is EXACTLY what I needed to know. I’m 57 and will have a few million when I’m required to draw. I have ZERO heirs so I plan on donating to charities and could not find quality information that wouldn’t cost me thousands a year in taxes…Thanks for the info you consistently provide.
  • @miragexl007
    I'm trying to figure this roth conversion idea out... We definitely plan on being in the lower tax bracket when we retire and start pulling out.. Everything is paid off... Just keep it under that ninety two grand or what have you... And maybe convert the "difference" between the one tax bracket and the next 1 up if we do keep it low..
  • @waleeddoghmi5661
    Hi James: I expect to continue full time or part time work making 300k to 500 K until age of 70 , so I don’t see my taxes going down significantly and I will not have that drop in income that most will have if they retire at 62 or 65. Can you do a video about financial and tax planning for professionals who will continue to work until age 70 with a higher income,and does it make sense to stop investing in IRA or 401/403b for such individuals and just invest in a brockerage account. Thank you for all that you do, I have learned a lot from your videos.
  • @max4life352
    Another reason to do a conversion is to reduce your taxable income for ACA qualifying. I’m not sure how the math works out, but I know someone who uses a mix of Roth and pretax to save on medical premiums. He retired at 59 and medical coverage would’ve been very expensive otherwise.
  • So glad 100% of my retirement contributions are 100% Roth IRA/Roth 401k!!! Being in the 12% US federal tax bracket makes 1000% sense!!! My retirement income will close to 100% income tax free!!!
  • @billl1127
    One other reason to not do a conversion might depend on where you plan to live. If a resident of California is considering a move to a low or no-tax state, it would make sense to wait to do the conversion until you are a resident of that state.
  • @leftysidewinder
    There’s also the age factor. As one ages, there is less time/risk capacity to dollar cost average new contributions into a Roth to offset Roth investment losses. And the five year holding period for growth, if it even grows at all makes Roth kind of illiquid, sort of like Webull’s IRA match. Also older folks need to plan for mental decline that may all of a sudden happen in 60s-70s, at which point they may lose the ability to make wise shopping/purchasing decisions with the Roth tax free growth that you had to wait 5 or more years before accessing tax-free.