Why China is Running out of Time to Invade Taiwan

As Taiwanese, in additional information, I can say that there are less than 20 geographical points that are suitable for invasion in certain seasons. But those points are not designed for massive landing operations, imagine that a place maybe 5 to 10 times minor than Normandy if you were a western person. And our defense administration prepared for the invasion based on those hot zone. But I hope there’ll be no war at all cost.

What I am impressed about is that China managed to have a housing bubble and shortage at the same time

In WW2 the allies never attempted an invasion of Japanese-occupied Taiwan because they thought the cost to allied troops would be too high and success not guaranteed.

Very astute analysis. I also believe the fear of failure is the real reason China has stayed it's hand. Ukraine giving Russia a whole load of what-for has been a gift to the whole world.

The timeline for when invading Taiwan is/was a good idea: Never. It's always been a bad idea.

Something pretty war-like that you missed: Taiwan has always been considered an absolute nightmare to invade. The waters are shallow between China and Taiwan, limiting troop transport sizes. That results in more of a logistical nightmare on an already difficult maneuver that China (as you said) hasn't been proven capable of doing well. Amphibious assaults are already plenty difficult to do. The rest of the fighting would come in two, equally unsavory flavors: urban warfare or mountain warfare. A stout, porcupine defense from Taiwan would make this potential invasion a bloodbath. China's likely inexperience with any of these elements would likely make the these FAR worse.

Thank you for your videos: concise, direct, and packed with information rather than just opinions.

Thank you for your well presented and interesting talk.

One of the things that I don't see often in these discussion of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan is that the vast majority of any invasion force will consist of single only child men thanks to the One Child Policy. The lost of several thousand of these men would be a social disaster as it would mean the end of several thousand family lines in a country where family lineage is greatly revered.

A lot of pictures you used in this video are from Hong Kong. As a HongKonger myself, I'd suggest using pictures from the mainland China to represent China. Example: 1:46 is a scene from one of Hong Kong's famous night market, 6:07 is from the Central district of Hong Kong, 6:33 is Hong Kong International Airport

A very balanced and insightful video on a complex topic. Thank you for a job well done! 👏👏👏

There is another issue; China is extremely dependent on foreign foodstuffs, fertilizers and farm equipment in order to feed itself. By far, the vast majority of these goods go through the Strait of Malacca. Moreover, something along the lines of 70% of the petroleum products it needs to keep the power on come through that same sea lane. To say that the country is vulnerable to a blockade really doesn't even begin to touch the issue.

Having worked in the semiconductor industry for a long time, just taking over a factory without the brains to run it means almost nothing...maybe a few days of production.

Tell me again why China would want to invade Taiwan. I asked a Chinese immigrant here in the USA that question, and she said it was “face,” a question of “saving face.” So China is holding a grudge that some of their citizens left China during Mao to live in freedom.

"If you want peace, prepare for war. -- Vegetius" which is a blueprint that is engraved in the hearts of every Taiwanese. :face-blue-smiling::hand-orange-covering-eyes::hand-purple-blue-peace:

One particular problem for China is that particularly among the Han, children are concentrated as single children. Drafting soldiers to send to war will be much harder when you are drafting the only child from an entire family. If people were having 3 or 4 children per couple, then they would only need of several siblings, which would make potential losses more tolerable.

Very interesting video. What I think that is not mentioned but quite relevant is that an economic turndown is often a trigger for dictators to start a war.

Russia just proved that starting any war in the 21st century is totally pointless. No matter how outmatched they are.

Thank you for the great video.

Good video Simon & Co.!