June jobs data could factor in to a July rate cut: Economist
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Published 2024-07-05
Nonfarm payrolls rose above expectations in June, with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting 206,000 new jobs compared to the expected 190,000. However, the US unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, higher than the estimated 4.0%. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas joins Morning Brief to discuss the print and what it means for the overall health of the economy. "This is what full employment looks like. This is what you want to see. This is a very good number," Brusuelas says. He explains that the print is good news for the Federal Reserve, as the economy is responding to higher interest rates and cooling down: "A policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% is no longer appropriate for an economy that has an inflation rate of 2.6% — taken out to three decimals is 2.563%. Moreover, growth is cooling, hiring is cooling, the economy is normalizing. We're moving back to that pre-pandemic trend." Brusuelas adds, "I'm more comfortable with the Fed actually hinting in July that they were going to go in September. If I'm a Fed member, I'm actually thinking about July. They want to get out in front of what's going to be a decelerating job market." He anticipates inflation to hit 2.3% by the end of the year, stating "we're within shouting distance" of the Fed's target of 2%. While many have their sights set on September for the first rate cut, he says, "I'm comfortable even with them considering July at this point, because I do think the economy is just normalizing. I want to be clear here, guys: This isn't a crack in the job market. It's not the economy's foundations cracking. We're moving back to trend." For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief. This post was written by Melanie Riehl
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All Comments (21)
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The jobs added: more government and healthcare, part time jobs in the private sector, meanwhile the tech sector continues to bleed jobs but yeah, let's not talk about that it's an election year.
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Every month; they revise down the previous month's number so the 206,000 jobs created will most likely be revised to maybe 175,000 and a miss. April and May were both revised way down, to the point where they combined to produce 111,000 combined jobs as previously reported. This must be an intentional to get the numbers wrong, since they are never revised higher. It's a 50-50 chance whether the prvious month is revised higher or lower but it's been more than a year since a revision raised the previous month
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talk about part time jobs replacing full time jobs...
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The creation of jobs is all at the PT, low income and government. That is not a healthy market. Sorry guys.
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Why is the labor force participation way higher when trump was in offfice vs biden?
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I don’t think so. Rate cut now? J Powell will never surprise the market
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All these jobs added is Amazon workers lol so many places have closed in my city restaurants , 99cent stores mom pop shops, only growth ive seen is amazon mega buildings coming up
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I find it very unlikely unemployment will be 4.2% at the end of the year.
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informative and interesting
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Last report was revised down 60 thousand jobs. This one will be as well. Things are not good. Take out government jobs and the report is bad. Enjoy
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Shark meat, 40% more jobs and restaurants n jobs not far off.
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No rate cuts, we need rate hikes!
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All Cool Bro 😎!
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Inflation is higher than 2%, rate cuts are still off the table.
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Sock those rate cuts to us!
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Narrative of rate cut for the last 2 years! Let cut rate and see what happens to the inflation. Paid to misinform.
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What a trashy click bait video
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