5 Receivers With No Hope In 2024

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I’d be interested to know how many of these bottom 5 offenses over 10 years were projected to be bottom 5 before the season started. Very interesting video!

My guy just glossed over Jarvis Landry #10 finish in 2017 lmao not even a mention

Love the vids but issue with the analysis here - these are “projections” vs rankings. Last year, the colts, cardinals, bucs, Texans, rams, titans were “projected” to be bottom 10 offenses. None of these teams offenses finished near their projection (baring titans). You would’ve missed on a ton of talent by assuming these teams would be bottom offenses at the start of 2023.

This is also taking into account that the win totals are perfect. WRs on projected bottom 5 teams per vegas sportsbooks last year. Puka Nacua Nico Collins Tank Dell Michael Pittman Mike Evans Not taking someone with some upside in the 14th round because vegas has there team bad is pretty dumb. If you can garuntee the team being bad sure but thats simply not the case. This is a solid strategy in the first two rounds to not tank your season but these examples you give are historically bad advice.

More Malik Nabers for me

I would have appreciated if you showed how predictable it is to be a bottom 5 offense. If 1/5 of the projected bottom 5 offenses actually are bottom 5 offenses, how nullified is the data?

Daniel jones has never had a WR1 , I’m taking Malik nabers all day long in the fifth round , no target competition, OL got better , Daniel jones should really improve this year. ( People forget that he was really solid in 2022)

If you extended this to bottom 10-15 offenses I think I’d have much more confidence in it. My gut says not much would change. It’s still hard to produce in a bad offense. But like you said it’s hard to predict exactly who the bottom 5 offenses are.

Just go back to his draft streams from a year ago and you’ll see how accurate this guy is with his projections

Nabers would be a no go in round 7. Where he is going right now is insane!

The wait is almost over boys🎉

Blazer is nice, but it looks like he rolled right out of bed lol I love the dedication

So this is just a best ball underdog channel now. Got it.

Mason, I love this data comparing how low end offenses affect fantasy production. One thing that I think is important is knowing the regular rate of a teams WR1 hitting top 32, 24 ,12 and 9 so that we can compare how much worse the bottom 5 is than average WR1 performance. Because obviously people to an extent are already fading WR on a bad offense but if we can compare to the average it might tell us better if we should be fading them even hard than the market already is (which I suspect given this data is the case or if people are already properly fading expected bad offenses). For example, if these WRs are already being ranked in the 40s the downside is somewhat baked in. Another thing I do like is the discussion of what players are much worse in a classic 'friend league' like you said, 10 team, 2 rb 2 wr 1 flex where you really need those home run players to stand out where as even if you draft a wr as the wr 38 and they finish as wr 24 it's still not really helping your team win in that kind of format

Why is the titans offense projected to be so bad? Seems they have some good pieces in place. Is it the line or Levis?

Do propects like nabers ever make qbs like danny dimes look respectable instead of dumpster fores? Thus out performing offensive projections? What are your top 5 teams likely to out perform protections?

How does this stack up in Full PPR? Does volume overcome this deficit?

Do you think that you could use this data and this trend to identify trades that can be done at different players' ceilings/floors? I picture this, identify: (A) players that will boom, inflating their trade value (B) players that will bust in some given period of time, deflating their trade value, but then boom later Then, trade player A for player B plus another player X and reap the excess value Just quickly looking over the data, I think one way of identifying this kind of situation would be looking for stretches where the team's ITT is less than their average ITT for multiple weeks. So the Falcons in Weeks 1-3 for example, and the Bills in Weeks 3-5. On the opposite end, the Lions are projected to have great weeks 1-4, with ITT > avg ITT, but then a relative rough patch. Edit: I guess what I'm asking is what is the correlation between the PPG and ITT in a given week.

How do predict who is going to be bottom 5 offense since you do not know before you draft? If you go off projection (like you have to) the data says differently. Like the Rams were suppose to be a bottom 5 offense last year, but they had more than 1 player in a top finish for example. I don’t see how this data being presented tells you anything right now while you are trying to draft.