The Two Opposite Futures of Self-Driving Cars

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Published 2022-07-29
Self driving is here. But not like you thought.
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I’ll admit it. I’d gotten cynical about self driving cars. It feels like every 3 years, we’re told they’ll be here in another 3 years. Recently though, I saw a video that shocked me: Kyle Vogt, CEO of Cruise, called for a taxi and a driverless car arrived. He was just one of hundreds of people across San Francisco who are getting into their ride and finding no one else inside.

So... are self-driving cars finally here?

I took a deep dive into that question over the last few months, trying to piece together all the other self-driving stuff I’ve heard about to get the full picture. I ended up in San Francisco, interviewing Kyle himself!

The answer I found to whether self-driving is here is: YES. Just not like I thought. It’s not the sci-fi version I was expecting. Instead, it’s actually two kinds of autonomous vehicles, battling it out on the roads right now. And our lives are about to look very different depending on who wins.

Chapters:
00:00 Self driving cars are finally here
02:15 Levels of self driving, explained
03:32 Where are we now on self driving cars?
05:07 Thank you Masterworks!
06:10 The big fight for the future of driverless cars
07:04 Interviewing Kyle Vogt, CEO of Cruise
08:20 Robotaxi meets world (and police)
10:00 The two near futures of self driving
11:52 The long term future of driving

Important note (because I never want you to be confused about whether something is sponsored): The only sponsor in this video is Masterworks, which means they got to approve their ad section beforehand, but didn't get a say in the rest of the video. Cruise did not pay me for being part of this video. I did an interview with the Cruise CEO and Cruise let me see their Bolt car, for which I'm very grateful!

Be featured in an episode - upload questions for me to answer! www.dropbox.com/request/Edocsb2kErpueQ7F9T1Q

You can find me on TikTok here for short, fun tech explainers: www.tiktok.com/@cleoabram
You can find me on Instagram here for more personal stories: www.instagram.com/cleoabram
You can find me on Twitter here for thoughts, threads and curated news: twitter.com/cleoabram

Bio:
Cleo Abram is an Emmy-nominated independent video journalist. On her show, Huge If True, Cleo explores complex technology topics with rigor and optimism, helping her audience understand the world around them and see positive futures they can help build. Before going independent, Cleo was a video producer for Vox. She wrote and directed the Coding and Diamonds episodes of Vox’s Netflix show, Explained. She produced videos for Vox’s popular YouTube channel, was the host and senior producer of Vox’s first ever daily show, Answered, and was co-host and producer of Vox’s YouTube Originals show, Glad You Asked.

Vox: www.vox.com/authors/cleo-abram
IMDb: www.imdb.com/name/nm10108242/

Additional reading and watching:
- “My first fully driverless pickup!” Cruise    • My first fully driverless pickup! | LONG  
- “Why You Should Want Driverless Cars On Roads Now,” Veritasium    • Why You Should Want Driverless Cars O...  
- “From 1956: A future vision of driverless cars,” CBS    • From 1956: A future vision of driverl...  
- “Self-Driving Big Rigs Are Coming. Is America Ready?” Christopher Mims, Wall Street Journal www.wsj.com/articles/self-driving-big-rigs-are-com…
- “Beyond Tesla: Driverless Startups Promise Next-Level Autonomous Vehicles,” Wall Street Journal Video    • Beyond Tesla: Driverless Startups Pro...  
- “Are Driverless Trucks The Future Of Shipping? Inside Waymo’s New Test Program,” NBC    • Are Driverless Trucks The Future Of S...  
- “75 Minutes of Autonomous Driving with Kyle Vogt and Sam Altman,” Cruise    • 75 Minutes of Autonomous Driving with...  
- “3 Generations of Driverless Delivery Vehicles,” WIRED    • 3 Generations of Driverless Delivery ...  
- “Tesla Autopilot For 24 Hours Straight!” Ryan Trahan    • Tesla Autopilot For 24 Hours Straight!  

Gear I use:
Camera: Sony A7SIII
Lens: Sony 16–35 mm F2.8 GM
Audio: Sennheiser SK AVX and Zoom H4N Pro

Music: Musicbed

Follow along for more episodes of Huge If True: youtube.com/cleoabram?sub_confirmation=1


Welcome to the joke down low:

What has 10 letters and starts with G-A-S?
Automobile.

Find a way to use the word “start” in a comment to let me know you’re a real one ;)

All Comments (21)
  • @MegaMathnerd
    OK, I admit -- I'm Cleo's Dad. But really, this is a great episode! The best part is how she organizes the coming driverless car/truck revolution to explain "the messy messy middle." Oh, also -- yes, the Batmobile WAS a driverless car.
  • @jdmarino
    In all of your videos there is usually a spot (or several) where you lay out the landscape of the topic and say "we are here". In this video, the 2x2 grid really helped me understand what's going on (and what is not). Two thumbs up.
  • @Megan-nt7dm
    Self driving cars would be amazing for people with disabilities. My sister has special needs and isn't quite able to drive on her own. One of her friends has a seizure disorder, and while he's been seizure free for a while, he still can't drive. This would also be amazing for visually impaired people. Since we have trash public transit, it could do a lot for people
  • @rjfaber1991
    I've always said that self-driving technology will come to trucks before cars. Having a car drive itself is a neat gimmick, but having a lorry drive itself is a major, major cost saver to the logistics industry. Ultimately the one with the bigger financial incentive behind it was always going to come first. And as for myself, I'll continue to use the mode of transport that has been 'self-driving' (at least from the perspective of passengers) for its entire existence: Trains. They're so much better than even the most utopian self-driving cars I've ever seen being presented to us.
  • @Victor-kh5rh
    People want driverless cars because they hate having to drive (emphasis on having to). But there are better solutions for this problem which would lead to more sustainable and livable cities, meanwhile also addressing major societal issues like sky rocketing housing prices and even obesity. What we need is cities and urban spaces that are designed for people rather than cars.
  • I'm a Tesla Model Y owner with FSD Beta. I enjoy testing this in my area. Each release the car gets better and better. It is like watching a teenage driver get better and better through experience. You have to be control (or in the case of teen driver, scream!) at all times because in this 'messy time' things will happen you will not like. Great video.
  • @jefffree3125
    Love how you tell stories, Cleo. It's so accessible.
  • We had around 2016 driverless buses in my hometown (Trikala,Greece) going on a scheduled route in a seperate bus lane, around the city center. Even if it lasted only for 6 months, since it was a EU program, and despite having maximum speed of around 20 kmph, it was a rather unique experience, travelling with one of the first fully independent automated vehicles
  • I think we need another episode on the different approaches between Tesla and every other autonomous driving company.
  • If I could shout something at Cruise / Waymo - where they are needed the most is if they can solve the “last mile” problem with public transit. I don’t need to ride a self driving car all the way to NYC, I just need it to get me to the train station that’s a ~5 minute drive away.
  • @coreyclothier
    Cleo, I have worked in the autonomous industry since 2009 and my company leads others through the transition (cities, airports, state DOTs, etc.) and we also help the autonomous makers with their deployments (installation, risk assessment, safety verification...). We also educate people about the benefits & path to get to autonomous. And I have to say, your video is the BEST explanation I have seen. I am going to share this throughout my network. VERY well done!!! I'm so glad that this popped up on my feed this morning!
  • As someone who deals a LOT with the trucking industry and where said industry impacts cost directly, we are foaming at the mouth to get autonomous long range trucks. The cost and time savings will be huge.
  • I'm curious why you didn't look more closely at Tesla FSD Beta? Considering that this appears to be the most advanced self-driving technology available right now, it seems a pretty "huge" omission. Tesla's FSD Beta represents the state of the art when it comes to self-driving, and it has nothing to do with taxis.
  • @hayskeys
    Cool topic, but would've appreciated some more in-depth details. Like how they're training the cars, what sort of tech, sensors, etc. Future plans for fleets, city expansion. What their biggest challenges are. Last few videos have been interesting, but without enough depth to learn anything new (like reading headlines without the article). I really do enjoy Huge If True and am excited to see your journey. Thanks!
  • @ReneRitchie
    Tried one in Vegas at CES several years ago. It was… terrifying and cool at the same time?
  • Great video. Although I wish you would have mentioned Tesla, who is by many measures leading the self driving industry
  • As a data scientist myself working on similar problems I am really happy to see cars getting smarter but I would love to see the traffic signals/lights getting smarter too .. that makes a lot of difference or find a way not to have traffic lights at all.. if things are getting automated. That’s what I would call progress.
  • @DavidLiMusic
    There's an interesting battle between the technologies of self-driving as well. Notably pure vision vs LiDAR
  • @GustavoTellez
    I’m a Tesla FSD beta tester and I’m amazed you didn’t talk at all about how differently Tesla is approaching autonomous driving. Have you had the chance to test a Tesla driving autonomously in a city?? Is not perfect, but when it works, is amazing!