CATALONIA | Is Independence Finished?

This has been an issue I have wanted to return to for quite some time. I remember watching the declaration of independence in 2017 with complete bemusement. As someone who works on secession, state creation and recognition, it was so obviously destined to fail. I just couldn't quite believe they had put themselves into such a corner. But where do things stand now? Is independence still on the table for Catalans? How do people in Spain feel about it? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments.

Finally a geopolitics slow week where the Prof can finish off an item on his to-do list.

As a Spaniard with strong connections to Catalonia, this analysis is... Lacking. However, the analysis seems to be made in good faith, so allow me to share more information that is crucial to understand all of this. The main problem with your analysis is that it makes it look like it's all about culture and national identity, but at the end of the day, that's more propaganda than anything else. The truth is Catalonia is not that particularly unique inside of Spain in that regard. The country as a whole is insanely culturally diverse, we have other languages inside the country that are as long lasting, if not more than Catalan, and also more removed from Spanish than Catalan is, and other regions have easily bigger historical claims to a theorical independence. At the end of the day, the Independence movement was more about one thing: money. By far, the biggest slogan of the Independence movement in 2017 was "España nos roba", or "Spain steals from us". As in, Catalans wanted to keep all of their taxes for themselves and only share them with the rest of the country on their own accord, instead of being redistributed by the Central Government, since they thought they were entitled to keep more money than they were receiving in comparison to the taxes they collected. The idea of sovereignty was just a means to that end. Very few people really had the rejection of the new Catalan statute in mind in this whole thing. In reality, Independence wasn't a response to historical grievances as much as an easy way out from the economic problems that Spain faced after the 2008 recession and the Eurozone crisis combo. Problem is, it was all a big ruse by Catalan politicians to stay in power. You see, the vast majority of government spending cuts in Catalonia were made by the regional government, not the the Central one. And they used the idea of independence in order to deviate the attention away from that fact, painting Spain as an anchor to Catalonia's foot that was squandering the region's economical potential. That's why their pleads for independence were pretty much ignored by the international community. It just rang painfully hollow at best and selfish and self-centered at worst. Not to mention it was also myopic. First, taxes aren't collected by region. They are collected on an individual basis. The reason why Catalonia is wealthier is because it has a lot of wealthy people tributing there. But these are a tiny minority of borderline oligarchs, not the region on average (there is an old saying that Catalonia is controlled by a 100 wealthy families). Also, the fact that during the country's industrialization, a lot of companies put their headquarters in Barcelona (NOT Catalonia). And of course, now that a lot, and I mean A LOT of companies have left the region since 2017, the overall wealth and tax return of the region has fallen dramatically. Which means that the illusion of Catalonia giving away more money to other regions than what they kept for themselves has lost A LOT of weight, since they give away less money than before, but they receive roughly the same amount as before in relative terms. There are more details that I'm leaving out, like the fact that disillusionment with the movement has a lot to do with people realizing the aforementioned politicians' ruse (the main reason why pro independence movement have fallen so much), or that Catalonia's true ultimate autonomy goal is to have something similar to the "Cupo vasco", the Basque Country's 500 year old special tax treatment, but you get the gist of it.

I mean. A peak of 49% support isn’t great. Breaking up a state doesn’t seem to be the type of thing you’d want to do on a simple majority. Surely, if there was a vote, it would be reasonable to require 2/3. Forcibly separating half the local population from their country and identity isn’t particularly democratic.

I think this is a very good analysis, but it should be emphasized that even at the height of the procés (the 10-year-long Catalan attempt to secede), at least 50% of Catalans wanted to remain in Spain. This was never just Spain vs. Catalonia, but rather a conflict between the two halves of Catalonia: the pro-independence Catalans vs. the unionist Catalans.

Now that you've done Scotland, Ireland and Catalonia, Professor, you are obliged to complete your list of independence movements by also doing Flanders! The European Parliamentary elections have shown a strong inclination towards, if not independence, at least even more devolution for the already devolved Belgium; which is to say a confederation! We haven't had one of those in the world for a while.

92% on 42% turnout doesnt exactly scream victory

The Catalan separatists do not have a strong case to argue that support for independence has been long-standing. There was majority support for the new Spanish Constitution in every region of Spain when it was ratified by a constitutional referendum in 1978. In Catalonia there was a vote of over 95% in favour of it, with voter turnout of about 68%. The ONLY region with any moral claim that the new constitution was not supported in that referendum is Basque Country. Basque separatists urged their supporters to boycott the referendum. Voter turnout there was less than 50%, of which about 75% voted in favour, meaning that only one-third of eligible voters there voted to support it.

Quite frankly it was absurd for separatists leaders to claim that somehow they could just unilaterally declare independence and the EU would just roll with that and accept them as a new member. That fact that Andorra, a catalan speaking microstate, expressed its support for Spain refusing to recognize the "independence" of Catalunya added a comical tone to the this whole fiasco.

The Kurdish and Catalan independence referendums-held just a week apart-showed how unrealistic the majority of separatist movements are in the face of centralised states that need them economically. What both movements have or had in common was that their own indigenous economic drivers (oil and tourism respectively) would be a means for a poorly thought out statehood that was never to be,

As a spaniard I must say with all due respect that catalonian independentism is far from over. I should say, in fact that it now has higher chances of succeding than it has ever had, with more radical independentist party ruling the regional parliament and the main independentist leaders being now able to decide wether the government is functional or not based on how the spanish parliament works. This may seem strange to outsiders, but catalan independentism is now one of the dominant faction of the spanish state.

I have a question: how can a given region gain independence from a country if this country's Constitution states that any attempt to break away is illegal and unconstitutional?

In the current geopolitical context (security threat by Russia, security dependence by the US), it becomes clear that further fragmentation of Europe may not be a very good idea, while other formulas of limited self-rule exist...

Always love to see an upload from you professor! Great coverage!

I would say that demographically, the independence movement already peaked, and it is slowly but steadily eroding. Basically, the most pro-Independence demographic are those that came of age in the 80’s and 90’s, and grew up in pre-digital era, where everyone was consuming the same set of facts and opinions, particularly TV3 and other local media, at the same time speaking catalan was in a way an act of rebellion, and certain sense of achievement, idealism and pride unified propelled Catalanism after Franco and the 92’s olympics. Nowadays, the very darwinistic nature of internet, has been relegating Catalan to a very testimonial role, when compared with the behemoth that is Spanish. For new generations, Catalan may feel as an imposition. Spanish is ‘cooler’ as that is the language of memes and influencers. With the language comes different viewpoints and opinions. With the fragmentation of the media landscape, institutional catalanism have lost influence over the narrative. Compound that with migration, declining birth rates in the rural parts of Catalonia, that traditionally support independence, and the future is bleak for the movement in the long run.

Thanks for shining a light on this issue. Very little (none?) coverage of this post the collapse of the independence effort in the general media.

The Catalonian independence movement is at least 200 years old. I wouldn´t expect it to die abruptly..

This isn't the 90s anymore. There are simply too many International interests tied up in the Europe union now to let any new independence movements succeed. Maybe post brexit UK but even that's pushing it.

Subscriber here from Spain. A very good analysis, with some caviats: 1. The reason for not holding a referendum of independence is simple, to change the constitutional status of Spain a referendum needs to be done in the whole country according to the current constitution, approved in 1978 with the support of most Spaniards, including Catalans. 2. The amnesty declared by the current Spanish government was done to get the votes needed to get Sanchez elected as PM. But that law is now under review by the Judiciary and there are serious doubts about its implementation. Simply put, the Executive branch cannot really tell the Judiciary what to prosecute and what not as it breaks the principle of equality against the law (just because I'm from Catalonia I'm not judged against a law that would affect me if I'm from Murcia, for example) 3. Many of the people who supported independence in the 2010s did so because of a decentralised education system that invents Catalonia as a repressed independent nation that also expands into Valencia, Ballearic islands and the south of France. Yes, Catalonia may have been de facto independent a millennium ago, but the truth is that Catalonia after that has never been independent, not even under the Crown of Aragon. Even during Franco, Catalonia was at the centre of Spanish manufacturing industry promoted mainly by the central government and Catalans were free to use their language at home, although the whole education system was in Castillian Spanish only. 4. All that said, support for the current socialist Spanish party has increased in Catalonia where they now have the highest vote percentage in all of Spain, whereas in Andalucia or Extremadura they've now been surpassed by conservatives. Should a general election be called, it's highly doubtful that they'll be able to form a majority and the Constitutional Court may declare the amnesty null and void anyways.

Thank you so much for this, I’ve been quite curious of where the impetus had gone.