What happens if China invades Taiwan?

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Publicado 2022-02-26
The next invasion?
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What happens if China invades Taiwan? Here’s how the start of World War 3 might go down.

For this video I leaned on some excellent interviews and research form:
Oriana Skylar Mastro: fsi.stanford.edu/people/oriana-skylar-mastro
Michael O’Hanlon: www.brookings.edu/experts/michael-e-ohanlon/

Also, Reuters did a similar speculative piece using some really compelling visuals: www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan…

Ian Easton’s research using PLA internal documents was a strong foundation for my reporting on this: project2049.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Chinas-…

Excellent data gathering and analysis by Gerald C. Brown at FPRI: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5el…

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Todos los comentarios (21)
  • @TheGKimble
    You can bet the Chinese government is gauging the worlds reaction and response to the Ukrainian crisis as we watch this video. Thanks for another informative and interesting video Johnny.
  • @BucketCapacity
    It's worth mentioning that Taiwan houses the majority of the world's semiconductor fabrication. If you thought COVID disrupted the supply chain, you haven't seen anything yet.
  • @willboler830
    As a veteran, all I can really say is nobody should want a war. If you don't know what it's like to take a life, be happy. You don't want that guilt on your shoulders for the rest of your life.
  • @yiranliu-xo2hf
    Legally speaking, the Chinese Civil War haven't ended yet. It has lasted for decades, since 1946, when the KMT suddenly attacked CPC controlled area disregarding the fact that Mao and Chiang had signed a treaty called "Double Ten Agreement". The agreement expressed the idea that KMT and CPC would unite together and set up a new state. After KMT attacked Shandong and Shaanxi, both under CPC controll, CPC decided to attack KMT to liberate the whole country. People under the reign of KMT had been suffering for decades, so they welcomed the PLA warmly. The KMT, due to failure in the mainland, had to escape to Taiwan with the illusion that they could counterattack on the mainland. Though both the people under CPC and KMT reign agreed that they are Chinese, the current government of Taiwan are deleting ancient literature from the textbook, making old Taiwanese upset."When I close my eyes, I can see the beuatiful scenes of Dongting Lake, thinking of Fan Zhongyan's article. Only when I step onto the land of Wuhan, of Xi'an, of Beijing, I can feel the vastness of Dongting Lake, the majesty of the Terracotta Army, and the magnificence of the Forbidden City." This is what a Taiwanese told me. Taiwan is politically "independent" from PRC, but nationally closely connected with Chinese nation. That is why the CPC is not trying to "invade" Taiwan, instead liberating them.
  • @qorekt5169
    Russia attacking Ukraine is making me worry as a Taiwanese that China might try the same thing depending on the outcome of how NATO reacts to the attack.
  • @WarlordRising
    Fun fact: US Navy has more presence in the Black Sea, Med, and off the shores of China than we ever did near the oceans and seas of the Middle East. The Cold War never truly ended. It just went classified, and got less front page news.
  • @leonwolfli611
    trivia: CPC and KMT never signed a truce after the breaking out of their civil war.
  • @adeoluwaajao7225
    One listen. Immediately subscribed. You are that good bro, kudos
  • @hopelesskz2457
    "We live in a different era" This is a very scary thought as someone who grown up through an era of peace thinking that it will last forever.
  • @AbroadinJapan
    Throughout my time living in Japan the spectre of an invasion of Taiwan has lingered over daily news here - particularly after Xi came to power. On the one hand, east Asia feels remarkably peaceful and safe, and then suddenly North Korea fires a missile over the Pacific, a hawkish Chinese commentator declares it’s time to take Taiwan by force or a disputed island gets surrounded by Japanese and a Chinese naval vessels. Watching Ukraine unfold with horror made me realise not to take this relatively peaceful time for granted in East Asia, as it could all go horribly wrong incredibly fast. (Great video as always mate. The ominous soundtrack alone made me cower in fear).
  • @supapi913
    Now you can assume the title "What happens if US invades Texas?"
  • Looking at this video now with the current situation is scary 😧
  • @luckless8
    I really appreciate the disclaimer cautioning against romanticizing conflict.
  • @No44778
    "War always escalates" Very important to keep in mind.
  • @user-ji6qr9vq2l
    One key point was missed. When there is a way at Taiwan strait the N. and S. Korea will certainly fight each other at the 38° boundary.
  • @ImNotFine44
    Let’s keep in mind, Taiwan makes most of the best chips that the world uses. Your computer or phone you are using has one of those chips, american military vehicle systems, missile systems and all other important things. Taiwan is pretty important. Edit: this comment is just highlighting a fact not pointed out in the video. I’m not saying that they are the only thing Taiwan is good for nor am I saying I don’t care about the Taiwanese. It’s purely a fact I wanted to share as it’s yet another reason why it’d be beneficial for countries to save the lives of the Taiwanese if an invasion would occur. Frankly, it’s disappointing I have to clarify this. No faith at all.
  • @ciscotx74
    He is absolutely right when he says that we have been in an unusually long period of relative peace in the world. The default in human history has been war and brutality. Those things go in cycles. And human nature has not changed.
  • @joshuabrown6481
    Johnny, Joshua here...I write books about Taiwan and was living there in the summer of 1995 (and well after). I liked your analysis. It was both well thought out and humble in that you saw clearly the point in which speculation ceases to be productive. Thanks for making this. JSB.